渤海湾盆地石油地质储量和产量增长趋势的预测

渤海湾盆地的石油地质储量发现过程具有明显的渐进性、阶段性和长期性，石油产量的增长也具有一定的起伏性，用一个周期的单旋回哈伯特模型难以预测其发展趋势。通过分析渤海湾盆地的勘探开发历程，结合新一轮常规油气资源评价的结果，分别采用4个和3个哈伯特旋回拟合石油地质储量发现和产量增长曲线。预测结果显示，2005-2015年渤海湾盆地处于石油地质储量发现高峰期，2015年左右其石油产量达到高峰，之后处于下降趋势。实践证明，利用多旋回哈伯特模型对具有“多峰”特征的石油地质储量和产量的未来趋势进行预测是一种有效的方法。     

Logistic模型的改进及在油藏可采储量预测中的应用

为了更准确地预测油气藏未来的经济可采储量，依据油气藏随开发必然要经历产量递减和生产收支平衡的实际。利用Logistic模型中技术可采储量、产量与时间的相互关系，经推导和改进后，再结合当前经济技术条件下的废弃产油量，预测油气藏的有效生产时间及其经济可呆储量。实践证实，改进后的Logistic模型预测结果更符合油气藏的生产实际，能为油气藏的储量管理提供可靠的依据。     

濮城油田濮67块低渗凝析难动用气藏挖潜技术研究

濮67块具有埋藏深、物性条件差、储量难动用程度低等特点，目前气藏采出程度很低，开发效果差。通过对濮67块天然气储量再认识，落实了该块储量；通过对濮67块各砂组剩余天然气分布规律的研究，明确了剩余气的下步挖潜方向；并开展了配套的剩余天然气挖潜技术研究，通过在生产中应用，取得了较好的增产效果，提高了气藏的采收率。     

Modeling alternative zoning strategies in forest management

To satisfy public demands for environmental values, forest companies are facing the prospect of a reduction in wood supply and increases in costs. Some Canadian provincial governments have proposed intensifying silviculture in special zones dedicated to timber production as the means for pushing out the forest possibility frontiers. In this paper, we compare the traditional two‐zone land allocation framework which includes ecological reserves and integrated forest management zones with the triad — a three‐zone scheme which adds a zone dedicated to intensive timber production. We compare the solutions of the mixed‐integer linear programs formulated under both land‐allocation frameworks. We explore through sensitivity analysis the conditions under which the triad regime can offset the impact on timber production from increased environmental demands. We show that under the realistic conditions characteristic to Coastal British Columbia, higher environmental demands may be satisfied under the triad regime without increasing the financial burdens on the industry or reducing its wood supply. This occurs, however, only if regulatory constraints in timber production zone are flexible.     

盐16井全封闭边界油藏的确定及评价

充分运用试井解释成果，以尽量少的井确定一个油藏的范围及储量面积，加快勘探速度，提高勘探效果，近年来在胜利油田得到了较充分的应用。根据盐16井的电子压力计探边恢复试井资料解释成果，确定了该井沙四段砂砾岩体为全封闭边界油藏，以及具体的形状、储量面积及边界大小，并对此进行了评价，为决策部门提供了准确的勘探依据。通过在盐16井南部钻的一口空井（盐161井），证实了本次试井解释结果的可靠性。     

预测水驱油田开发动态的一种方法

水驱曲线法和数学模型法都是油藏工程中的重要方法，前者主要用于在一定的经济含水条件下预测水驱油田的可采储量和采收率，后者主要用于预测不同类型油田的产量、累积产量和一定经济极限产量下的可采储量。然而，前者与时间序列无关，后者与含水率序列无关，都有局限性。提出丙型水驱曲线公式与ＨＣＺ数学模型公式联解预测法，不但可以预测水驱油田产量、累积产量、含水率随时间的变化，还可预测可采储量、可动油储量和水驱波及体积系数的变化。图３表１参１２（陈志宏摘）     

新增探明储量的经济可采储量计算方法

提出了新增探明储量有无经济可采储量的判别方法。在此基础上，通过对立已开发油田技术可采储量经济转化率与油藏空气渗透率的相关关系式和图版，根据储层的空气渗透率，计算新增探明储量的经济转化率和经济可采储量。该方法参数易取，计算简便，对于快速、准确计算新增探明储量的经济可采储量具有重要意义。     

新增探明储量技术采收率主控因素

在申报探明可采储量时，关键是采收率的取值，由于油藏处在勘探评价或开发初期，受资料所限，采收率只能是应用经验公式法、经验取值法、类比法和数值模拟法求取，然后综合确定一个值，在求取过程中关键是明确此阶段采收率的主控因素，从而相对准确地求取采收率值。通过分析，明确了探明储量技术采收率的主控因素为油藏驱动类型、储层渗透率、储层非均质性、原油地下粘度及井网密度，为此阶段科学评价采收率奠定了基础。     

Sensitivity of generation reserve requirements in deregulated power systems

Since demand for power exhibits great variability the amount of firm energy to be purchased to meet real time demand based on forecasts is usually different from the realized demand for that period. The role of generation reserves is to meet the real time fluctuations of power demand. The predictable part of the demand is met through purchases of firm energy. In this paper a model is presented to determine optimal quantities of firm energy and generation reserves to meet random demands. The model is then parameterized introducing a set of factors to perform a sensitivity study. A full factorial experiment is designed to study the impact of five factors on the response variable (i.e., proportion of generation reserves on the total purchased quantity). An example consisting of 640 simulations corresponding to 2⁵ treatment combinations evaluated over 20 randomly generated mean demands is used to identify significant factors on the response variable. Results from the experiment suggest that generation reserve requirements should be adjusted considering changes in significant factors and in the mean demand over the dispatch interval.     

一种广义水驱特征曲线的建立

广义水驱特征曲线能描述综合含水储量采出程度呈多种不同的凸、S、凹曲线类型。根据油水两相渗流原理，从归一化的油水相对渗透率出发，建立起累积产油、累积产水与综合含水率的积分相关关系，进而建立了累积产油、累积产水与归一化的油水相对渗透率的关系。通过构建积分函数，利用公式形式类比，建立了更一般形式的广义水驱特征曲线。理论分析和实例计算表明，所建立的广义水驱特征曲线与实际数据线性相关性更强，结果更可靠。